Free Market Analysis

Hello, this is Hugh Meghrazi and today in our Forex podcast series we are going to review the important economic events of the coming week. Let's start on the first working day of the week, which is November the 21st. To be honest, we won’t have such significant news on this day that will have an immediate impact on the market, so probably the market will start in the same situation as it ends last week. The monthly PPI statistics of Germany will be declared on this day, which could be slightly impactful for the Eurozone, and a series of speeches will be given regarding the UK and Germany economies. so, November the 21st is not such an important day. Then on the 22nd of November, we will have New Zealand's trade balance statistics, which the forecasts are -1,715 billion, which if there is an improvement, will definitely strengthen the New Zealand dollar, and if it is worse than this number, it will weaken this currency. Then the members of the central bank of Australia will have a speech, which could be very noteworthy. It should be noticed whether they use a hawkish tone and whether they want to use contractionary policies or not. On the other story, For the Canadian dollar, the retail sale statistics will be reported around 5:00 pm also, for the US dollar we will have the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing index and the speech of the members of the Federal Reserve, which we can say they wont have an immediate impact on the market unless the tones will be very different from what we have seen so far. In fact in those speeches, they don't have anything new to offer. In the last few weeks and months, they are repeatedly saying they are trying to fight with inflation by raising the interest rate and the amount of that raise will be based on the data. So we know what they are going to say again. For this reason, these speeches may not be able to have a particular impact on the markets unless we will see a big change in their context or being contrary to the market's predictions. On the 23rd of November, which is the most important day of the week we will start early in the morning with important statistics from New Zealand and a session to determine the rate of increase in New Zealand's interest rate, and New Zealand's monetary policies plus a news conference of RBNZ that can have a very important impact on NZD , the New Zealand dollar. If the interest rate increases more than the forecasts or if they use a stronger hawkish tone regarding the fight against inflation, it can help to strengthen the NZD. On the same day, we will have the Flash PMI statistics in France, Germany, and the UK for both the service sector and the manufacturing sector. The PMI statistics show the confidence purchasing managers have in the economic situation of their country and if it is higher, especially above 50, then it means the economy of that country is strong and in an expanding cycle, and when a country has a strong economy, then the currency of that country will also be powerful. In the opposite side a PMI decrease will be translated to a weak economy and the fear of recession will go high and as a result the currency of that country will fall. This week’s forecasts in France, Germany, and even in the UK are all under 50. For example, the service PMI of Britain is predicted to be 48 and the manufacturing PMI is predicted to be 45. If the PMI will be announced better than the forecasts, it can help the currency to show some strength so these announcements will be important this week. On the same day, the PMI statistics for the US will be reported and this can be very important as well, as it can affect the US dollar. To be honest November the 23rd will be a busy day, we will have some other statistics on property transactions, as well as unemployment insurance claims, and a meeting by members of the Federal Reserve for the US, and as we must emphasize again, it can be the most volatile day of the week and we must be aware of fluctuations in the New Zealand dollar, Euro, Pound sterling, and the US dollar. Now let's go to the 24th of November, we will have Japan’s manufacturing PMI and a series of discussions regarding the economic situation of Germany in the Eurozone and the UK so that in the short term, they can give a general picture of the economy of these countries. Definitely It is not a bad idea to review these news, but we must mention that we don’t expect these can have an immediate effect on your trades. Finally, on November the 25th, New Zealand's retail sale and core retail sale statistics, Japan's core CPI statistics, and Germany's final GDP will be announced. Amongst them Germany’s GDP will show whether EU is in recession or not and Japan CPI will tell us some information about the inflation in Japan which is predicted to be 3.5%. Again, these announcements on their own are not very impactful and they just can help us to have a better big picture about those economies for the long run. This was from this week's podcast; I hope it was useful for you. Take care and don’t forget to stick with your risk management when trading, also don’t forget to press like and share this podcast to support us. Thank you, have a great time. Bye for now.