Is Gold ready for a new bearish trend?

• 2019-06-19
• Traiding Idea

Technical Analysis:
1) Gold reached to an area of 1355 to 1365 dollar which has been its resistance area for the past few years. 2) Oscillators are showing the energy of the market dropped and we see some over bought signals as well. 3) From Elliot wave perspective market completed a 5 waves and now ready for correction. 4) If you draw Fibonacci expansion you can see market reached to 261% of it's original movement which can be potentially a good ending point. 5) Price Action: the last candles have only long shadows on their top which means sellers are taking heavy positions on that area. Usually these high test bars are a good signal for starting a bearish trend

Fundamental Analysis:
Today we will have Federal Funds Rate announcement and FOMC statement. Market expects Federal Reserve to cut the interest rate by 0.25 but not still sure whether it happens tonight or will remain for July meeting. As you probably know the major central banks around the world are trying to support their economies by cutting rates or other supportive tools and it's expected to see the same movement from Federal reserve. It can increase the risk appetite of the market and smart money will flow from safe investments like Gold towards more riskier ones like indices.

Based on above, we expect a bearish trend in the mid term movement of the Gold. In short term it might still fluctuate around this area. We need to carefully follow what FOMC is releasing tonight.